- Causes of the truck driver shortage
- The impact of the driver shortage on capacity
- What shippers can do to find capacity more reliably
Without truck drivers, your supply chain — and everyone else’s — would come to a screeching halt.
Not only are they a critical component in moving shipments from one point to the next, but their expertise and dedication ensure deliveries are completed safely and on time. Hiring highly qualified and experienced truck drivers makes all the difference.
Over the past few decades, the U.S. has experienced an ever-growing truck driver shortage. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported a shortage of 80,000 drivers in 2021, with estimates reaching 115,000 in 2025. The gap is projected to exceed 170,000 drivers by 2030.
At Anderson Trucking Service (ATS), we keep our finger on the pulse of the transportation industry 24/7/365. We've monitored the driver shortage over time, including the ripple effect it has had on capacity, and we're passionate about sharing our expert insights to help ensure your business is not affected.
To help you understand how the driver shortage could impact your ability to secure capacity for your shipments, let's dive deeper into the factors influencing this state of affairs.
We'll explain how this perfect storm may make it more difficult for you to find coverage and — more importantly — what you can do to make your shipments more appealing to the available driver pool. Let's get started.
What’s Causing the Truck Driver Shortage?
First, it's important to understand how we got here. There are many short- and long-term events and factors that have contributed over time; in recent history, we can look to the COVID-19 pandemic, its aftermath, and a historically long-lived freight recession.
These events delivered a multi-year stretch of bottomed-out rates and set the stage for the current shortage.
Today, the three most significant contributors to the driver shortage are the age of the current driver population, the reluctance of new drivers to take long haul jobs, and overall economic factors.
1. Aging Driver Population
The general population of truck drivers is aging. In fact, the average age of commercial truck drivers today is 46 years old — about a half-decade older than the average age of workers in other industries.
As the driver population ages and retires from the profession, it has simultaneously become more difficult to recruit new drivers.
Rampant misconceptions about the job have resulted in declining interest among younger people entering the job market. Stereotypes that frame trucking as an unhealthy, low-paying, or "dirty" job are more widespread than ever, despite the equally widespread push among carriers to offer robust wellness programs, raise driver pay, and improve overall quality of life for drivers.
In reality, drivers are professionals with plenty of opportunities for career growth, rapidly increasing earning potential, a high degree of independence and the freedom to see every corner of the country while getting paid for it.
Unfortunately, undoing these misconceptions has proven to be challenging. Without a steady flow of new, younger drivers entering the field, numbers continue to dwindle as older drivers leave for retirement or less rigorous work.
2. Reduced Interest in Long-Haul Projects
Working as a driver has plenty of perks, but it also demands a lot of time away. Today, many drivers — particularly younger drivers or those new to the job —are more interested in local jobs and short-haul projects that will keep them close to their homes and families.
Luckily, many carriers are doing their best to offer drivers more flexibility with their over-the-road (OTR) schedules, recognizing the importance of getting drivers home regularly to overall job satisfaction and long-term retention.
The federal government has also gotten involved via new regulations. In 2020, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) revised four provisions of the hours-of-service (HOS) regulations to provide greater flexibility for drivers without adversely affecting safety.
These new regulations, in combination with increased carrier focus on offering drivers an improved work-life balance, have helped to offset some of the hesitancy to enter the profession.
Still, given the other factors at play and the cultural shift to a workforce that prioritizes work-life balance, flexible hours/scheduling, and more time with family, it seems it will take more to turn the heads of potential truckers moving forward.
3. Economic Pressures
Heading into 2025, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) released its annual survey of trucking's most pressing issues. For the second consecutive year, the economy ranked highest among industry stakeholders' concerns.
Drivers and carriers alike are feeling the combined impacts of rising costs, the lingering freight recession, and low freight rates.
In ATRI's 2024 Operational Costs of Trucking research, the institute documented industry cost increases of more than 22 percent over the preceding two years — increases that led to the highest recorded costs in the 16-year history of the annual report.
The high cost of obtaining, maintaining, and operating a truck are also making drivers and carriers skittish about the on-again off-again threat of higher tariffs in 2025.
Tariffs on imported trucks and parts are likely to increase equipment costs significantly. For example, a 25 percent tariff on a new Class 8 truck could raise its price by up to $35,000, according to the ATA — thereby raising the already costly barrier to entry to the industry.
And because many parts and components are manufactured in Mexico and Canada, even U.S.-based truck manufacturers may not be safe from the potential cost hikes.
With higher costs, lower rates, and the global shipping market in upheaval, the cost-benefit analysis of entering (or remaining in) the trucking profession isn't adding up to financial gains for some drivers.
How the Truck Driver Shortage Can Impact Capacity
It may seem simple: Fewer drivers means fewer options for hauling your freight.
While that's true, it's important for you to understand how the interaction between the supply of trucks, the supply of drivers, and the demand for both shapes the state of the market.
Now more than ever, shippers like you are dealing with increased pressure to ship higher volumes faster, including but not limited to:
- An increasingly urgency-driven e-commerce marketplace
- Cyclical seasonal trends, like produce and construction seasons in the spring or retail peak season toward the holidays
- Fear of higher tariffs motivating increased front-loading, the practice of importing as much inventory as possible before a new regulation goes into effect
Meanwhile, market interruptions can halt or dramatically slow shipping of non-essential goods, clogging ports and creating a massive shipping backlog up and down the supply chain.
As carriers rush to play catch-up, more trucks are demanded to keep up with the supply of goods needing to be shipped.
With fewer drivers available due to the driver shortage, and fewer trucks available due to high demand, carrier capacity can quickly become maxed out.
In response, owner-operators can be choosier about the loads they take and opt for projects, lanes, and/or loads that will pay them the highest rate.
That can mean less capacity to haul your freight — and a higher cost to secure the capacity that is available.
So, if you're finding it difficult to secure reliable capacity for your loads lately — or to secure that capacity at a lower rate — you're likely not alone.
The good news is that as of April 2025, the transportation market is showing signs of rebalancing after the upheaval of the freight recession.
Freight volumes are subdued and capacity is high relative to demand, so the increased pressures of a "high demand, low supply" trucking market are not as overwhelming as they once were.
Still, the transportation industry is facing a time of significant uncertainty; uncertainty drives to market volatility. In such moments, it's wise for shippers to hope for the best, but prepare for the possibility of a sudden capacity crunch.
How Shippers Can Find Coverage More Reliably
No matter what the market is currently throwing your way, it's never a bad idea to seek out ways to secure coverage more reliably. Here are some actionable steps you can take to stay nimble and navigate shortages and disruptions successfully:
- Choose reliable carriers. Your ability to find a truck is only as good as your carrier's access to capacity, so take this time to rigorously vet any new providers you're considering adding to your freight network.
- Build strong relationships. When the market tightens, carriers will often prioritize long-term relationships, giving those customers priority access to their limited supply of capacity. The better your carrier relationships are, the more likely it is you'll be at the front of the line when it counts.
- Remain flexible. Be open to new ways of doing things. For example, flexibility may mean allowing a reputable carrier to use vetted partners to meet peak demands. Carriers may also be able to give you better access to different lanes if you opt for round-trip rather than one-way.
- Plan ahead: Give carriers as much advance notice as you can. Even one or two days of advance planning can make a world of difference when it comes to route planning, securing capacity and identifying service options.
Take Your Capacity Strategy to the Next Level
The ongoing truck driver shortage is more than just an industry talking point — it's a real constraint that can impact your ability to secure cost-effective, reliable transportation.
From an aging workforce and shifting job preferences to mounting economic pressures, the factors driving this shortage are varied and complex. And while the market may be temporarily favorable, history shows how quickly conditions can change.
The good news? You're not powerless. By building strong relationships, choosing reliable providers, and staying flexible and forward-thinking in your shipping strategy, you’ll position yourself to weather tight markets and keep your freight moving when it matters most.
Want a few more tricks for staying ahead of the curve? Check out our Find a Truck Faster Guide for practical steps you can take today to improve your speed to coverage.
This free downloadable resource includes 12 tried-and-true strategies for making your freight more appealing to truck drivers and carriers, so you can always get capacity when and where you need it.
