As we approach the final months of 2026, rising fuel costs continue to dominate conversations about freight transportation. And with freight rates remaining elevated and truck capacity tighter than in previous years, shippers are facing several challenges heading into November.
Plus, the upcoming holiday season and winter weather could add to those challenges, affecting freight demand, truck availability, transportation costs, and delivery schedules.
So, what should shippers know about the November 2026 freight market?
With more than 70 years of transportation experience, Anderson Trucking Service (ATS) has firsthand insight into the factors shaping today's market. In this month's update, we'll share what we're seeing across the industry, what it means for your freight, and how you can prepare for the weeks ahead.
November 2026 Freight Market Overview
- Fuel costs remain elevated, putting upward pressure on freight rates.
- Overall truck capacity remains tight, with availability varying by region, lane, and equipment type.
- Dry van demand is increasing as retailers prepare for the holidays.
- Flatbed demand is strong, driven by data center, solar, and energy projects.
- Reefer demand is increasing as winter weather creates a need for freeze protection.
- Holiday shipping and winter weather could further affect capacity, rates, and delivery schedules.
- Planning ahead and providing flexible shipping schedules can help shippers manage costs.
Fuel Costs
Let's start with one of the biggest concerns we're hearing from shippers right now: fuel prices.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the national average diesel price reached approximately $6.28 per gallon in late October 2026. These elevated fuel costs are putting additional pressure on carriers' operating expenses and contributing to higher transportation rates.
California is a particularly challenging market, with some of the highest diesel prices in the country. In September, some California fueling stations reportedly displayed diesel prices as high as $9.999 per gallon, according to Fortune. While not representative of prices across the whole state, it's an example of just how high diesel prices have climbed in certain areas.
For shippers, those rising fuel costs can translate into higher freight rates, especially with tighter capacity adding to the pressure.
Capacity
That brings us to another question we're hearing from shippers: Are we really experiencing a capacity crunch?
The short answer is yes, although conditions vary by region, shipping lane, and equipment type.
As many carriers have exited the market in recent years, fewer trucks are available to move freight. And while capacity has tightened, we're not seeing a significant influx of new carriers entering the market to replace those that have left.
Driver preferences are also changing. At ATS, we're seeing more drivers choose to stay closer to home rather than spend extended periods on the road. Some are focusing on shorter, more consistent shipping lanes that allow them to return home more frequently.
With fewer new drivers and carriers entering the market, these capacity challenges could persist for some time.
What's Happening in the Dry Van Market?
With that broader market picture in mind, let's take a closer look at what's happening with dry van demand, capacity, and rates.
Dry Van Demand
Dry van transportation demand is picking up heading into November, driven largely by retail freight as the holiday shipping season approaches. This seasonal trend is consistent with what we typically see toward the end of the year.
We're also seeing retailers shift inventory between locations to better align with consumer demand and create space for incoming 2027 products.
Outside the retail sector, solar projects in the Southern U.S. are another area to watch. At ATS, we're seeing more requests to quote larger projects involving solar panels, creating potential opportunities for dry van transportation.
Dry Van Capacity
While dry van capacity is tighter than we've seen in recent years, it has remained relatively stable over the past few months. That said, capacity continues to vary greatly by region and lane.
Based on what we're seeing at ATS, here are some shipping lanes that have stood out over the past month:
- Outbound Texas: Freight has been relatively easy to cover.
- Midwest to South: Freight has been moving without significant capacity challenges.
- North and South Carolina: Capacity remains readily available.
- Inbound Ohio: Freight has been relatively easy to cover.
- Inbound California: Capacity has been more difficult to secure.
Dry Van Rates
Dry van freight rates remain elevated, with recent ATS shipments averaging around $3.00 per mile. However, the rate a shipper pays can vary significantly depending on the shipping lane, region, and available truck capacity.
Same-day shipments, as well as shipments over holidays, have also become more difficult to cover at competitive rates. Shippers who can offer additional lead time, flexibility with pickup dates, or more competitive pricing may have an easier time securing capacity.
Flatbed and Open-Deck Freight Market Trends
So, what's happening in the flatbed and open-deck transportation market as we head into November?
Flatbed Demand
Demand for flatbed and open-deck transportation has increased significantly in recent months, driven largely by project freight.
At ATS, we're seeing customers plan large, multi-load projects for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, particularly in the data center, solar, and energy sectors. These projects involve transporting a wide range of equipment and infrastructure, including building materials, transformers, inverters, and other large components.
Flatbed Capacity
With strong demand for flatbed and open-deck transportation, competition for available truck capacity could become more challenging in certain markets.
Not to mention, as winter approaches, many flatbed drivers begin heading south in search of warmer weather and more favorable driving conditions. This seasonal shift can affect where truck capacity is concentrated.
The lanes that have stood out to the ATS team in the last month include:
- Southeast and Northeast: Capacity remains tight.
- Outbound Texas: Capacity is improving.
- Intrastate Texas: Securing capacity remains challenging.
- California: Securing capacity remains challenging, with some of the highest diesel prices in the country adding to carriers' operating costs.
- Florida: Moving flatbed freight into northern Florida has been easier this year compared to previous years.
Flatbed Rates
Flatbed transportation rates are also elevated, with recent ATS shipments averaging around $3.75 per mile. But again, the exact rate a shipper pays varies based on region, shipping lane, and available truck capacity.
Reefer Freight Market Trends
Reefer transportation is facing additional cost pressures as fuel prices remain elevated. Unlike dry vans, reefers require fuel to power the truck and the trailer's refrigeration unit.
This is also the time of year when reefer demand heats up, quite literally. As temperatures drop across the northern U.S., more shippers need temperature-controlled trailers to protect their freight from freezing.
Despite their name, reefers aren't just designed to keep products cold. They can also maintain warmer temperatures to provide freeze protection for temperature-sensitive freight, like food and beverage products. This makes reefer transportation an important option for shippers moving temperature-sensitive freight during the winter months.
Seasonal Freight Market Trends to Watch in November
Speaking of winter, there are two seasonal factors that typically affect the freight market around this time of year: holiday shipping and winter weather.
Here's what shippers should prepare for as we soon head into the colder months.
Holiday Shipping
Not only does the holiday season increase demand in certain sectors, but it can also reduce driver availability. In recent years, we've seen more and more drivers take time off around Thanksgiving and Christmas to spend time with their families.
What does that mean for shippers? Well, finding available truck capacity can become more challenging, and securing a truck may come at a higher rate.
With capacity already tighter than in previous years, these seasonal challenges could put even more pressure on freight rates as we approach the holidays.
Winter Weather
Winter weather is also right around the corner. While we may not be seeing snow just yet, it's only a matter of time before winter conditions begin affecting freight transportation across the northern U.S.
Snow, ice, and poor road conditions can slow transit times, and mountain pass closures can cause additional delays. In some cases, taking a longer route may help avoid severe weather and potential delays. However, with fuel prices already elevated, those additional miles can increase transportation costs even further, and may not always be an ideal option.
Winter weather can also make tarping and other open-deck operations more challenging, which is another reason many flatbed drivers choose to head south during the colder months.
With winter weather potentially affecting both transit times and transportation costs, shippers should build additional flexibility into their schedules and work with their transportation providers to plan ahead.
How Can Shippers Manage Freight Costs and Capacity?
Between elevated fuel prices, tighter truck capacity, and seasonal challenges, shippers have a lot to consider heading into November. Another question we're hearing frequently is: When will freight rates come down?
The reality is, nobody knows for certain. With elevated fuel prices contributing to higher transportation costs, much depends on how fuel markets evolve in the coming months.
What we do know is that significant rate changes typically don't happen overnight. Based on what we're seeing at ATS, upward pressure on freight rates is expected to continue through the remainder of 2026.
While shippers can't control freight rates, there are steps they can take to help manage transportation costs. Here's what we recommend at ATS:
Provide More Lead Time
We probably sound like a broken record at this point. But providing more lead time truly can make a difference when it comes to managing freight costs.
Whenever possible, we recommend giving your transportation provider at least 1-2 days' notice before your freight needs to be picked up. Why? More lead time gives your provider additional time to find available capacity, compare options, and secure a competitive rate.
When shipments are booked at the last minute, carriers have less flexibility to accommodate them, which can drive up costs. Depending on the shipment and market conditions, a same-day load could cost $300-$500 more than one booked in advance.
While additional lead time doesn't guarantee lower rates, it can help you avoid paying a premium for last-minute capacity.
Consider Rail Transportation
Another way we're seeing shippers try to lower their transportation costs is by exploring rail.
Rail transportation can be more cost-effective than trucking, making it an attractive alternative when freight rates are as elevated as they are today.
However, increased interest in rail can also make capacity harder to secure, especially on short notice. Some larger companies are purchasing railcars or securing capacity well in advance, making availability more challenging for other shippers, particularly moving oversized or specialized freight.
If you're considering rail for your next shipment or wondering whether it's a good option for your freight, talk with your transportation provider as early as possible.
November 2026 Freight Market Outlook
So, what can shippers expect for the remainder of 2026?
While there's no way to predict exactly how the freight market will unfold, we're anticipating continued upward pressure on transportation rates as elevated fuel costs and tighter capacity affect the industry.
The upcoming holiday season could add to these challenges, particularly as more drivers take time off around Thanksgiving and Christmas. With fewer trucks available, securing capacity may become more difficult and rates could climb higher on certain shipping lanes.
As we approach the end of the year, our advice to shippers remains the same: Plan ahead whenever possible. Taking a proactive approach to your transportation needs can help you navigate these challenges as you finish out 2026 and prepare for 2027.
November Shipping Checklist
If you remember anything from this month's freight market update, remember these tips:
- Book shipments at least 1-2 days in advance, with additional lead time around holidays.
- Review capacity early for challenging lanes.
- Build flexibility into your shipping schedule to account for winter weather.
Frequently Asked Questions
Need Help Navigating the November Freight Market?
No matter what the November freight market brings, ATS is here to help you navigate your transportation needs. Whether you're preparing for holiday shipments or looking ahead to 2027, our team can help you evaluate your options and find capacity for your freight. Contact our transportation experts today!
