Key Takeaways:
- Holiday season 2025 may bring higher rates.
- Retail peak's capacity crunch will be longer-lived.
- Overall holiday consumer spending growth is expected to slow.
- Fast fulfillment remains essential to compete.
Retail peak season is the pre-holiday period during which consumer spending steadily ramps up through to the end of the calendar year.
While the $994.1 billion consumers spent during the 2024 holiday season was record-breaking, a period of macroeconomic uncertainty (and the seemingly never-ending freight recession) has many in the retail industry looking for answers about what unique challenges this year's peak season will bring.
This desire to be proactive is perfectly understandable, especially considering what's been thrown at retail industry logistics professionals in the last five years.
Thanks to a major spike in e-commerce activity, retailers are under pressure to be more agile and responsive than ever — despite the fact that the supply chains they're managing are more complex and fast-paced than ever, too.
Anderson Trucking Service (ATS) understands these challenges from the inside out. Each year, we dedicate a portion of our dry van fleet to running lanes for large retailers, helping to ensure their products get where they’re needed.
This firsthand experience with retail peak season, combined with our decades of logistics experience, allows us to share some unique insights about the months ahead.
In this article, we’ll break down the ways in which the retail landscape has changed as well as our expectations for what the 2025 retail peak season will look like.
Along the way, we'll provide tips on what you can do to keep your shipments running smoothly. We hope you're ready — we're about to talk shop 'til we drop!
When is Retail Peak Season?
In general, retail companies will see demand increase significantly starting in Q4 through the end of the year.
Retail peak season doesn’t have strictly defined dates, as every supply chain is different. However, retailers typically expect the initial surge to begin in October and end roughly three months later, at the end of December.
This largely corresponds with consumer spending habits as the holiday season approaches, though they have changed along with the times. This evolution — which we'll touch on next — has had major implications for both the transportation and retail sectors.
How Has Retail Peak Season Changed Over Time?
Retail peak season is subject to change with the economy and new developments in the commercial landscape. In recent history, retailers have seen their annual retail peak logistics change in two unique ways:
Retail Peak Season Has Extended
Traditionally, peak season for retail has coincided with consumers' holiday shopping. The typical cycle of holiday shopping began in November and wound down after the post-Christmas sales.
But beginning in 2018-19, retail’s peak season began to expand, creeping into the earlier months of fall.
This can be partially attributed to capacity shortages in many areas. Without the trucks they need — due to low driver levels, equipment shortages, etc. — retailers have had to adjust their schedules accordingly.
This has led to more retail freight moving earlier in the year, with retail peak starting in mid-September/early October.
But that's only one half of the equation. We can't talk about the expansion of retail peak season without talking about the impact of the e-commerce boom.
Retail Peak Season Has Been Impacted by E-commerce
No industry was left untouched by the COVID-19 shutdowns of 2020-21. Retail was no exception: Brick-and-mortar stores closed at the start of the lockdowns, and those that remained open struggled against waning sales as their usual consumer base stayed home.
As a result, e-commerce transactions skyrocketed with people spending more money on consumer goods over the internet than ever before.
This left a mark on every retail supply chain, with fulfillment and logistics strategies shifting to match purchase velocity.
COVID-19 laid bare two realities of the modern marketplace for retailers: 1) E-commerce is the way of the future, and 2) Global supply chains are remarkably fragile.
Loath to be caught off-guard by supply chain interruptions (as many were in the 2020-21 season), retailers are now scheduling their holiday inventory shipments to arrive much earlier in the year.
This helps to ensure they'll have enough stock on hand for retail peak season — no matter what global disruptions might lurk around the corner.
In an effort to get the most out of their digital storefronts, retailers are also scheduling more promotions throughout the late summer, fall, and winter periods, which helps to prevent delivery bottlenecks during the height of retail peak.
This is a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy: If retailers begin to offer deals earlier and earlier in the year, consumers will start to expect those promotions around those times — which reinforces the success of this strategy to retailers, and the cycle starts all over again!
In the transportation industry, we've seen the impact of these front-loading strategies on capacity, with dry van trailers becoming more scarce as early as August in preparation for all the online shopping to come in the colder months.
Download The Guide: 7 Keys to Success in the Retail/General Merchandise Industry
What to Expect: Tips For a Successful 2025 Retail Peak Season
Realistically, we haven’t had a “normal” retail peak season since 2017. And in many ways, the 2025 season won't exactly be "normal," either.
There will be challenges (aren't there always?) like the continued impact of tariffs, the increased pressure of the e-commerce boom, and many other factors at play — but there will be opportunities for success, too.
We've got a solid handle on what to expect from retail peak this year, and while the predictions below are just that — only predictions — our tips for navigating this time will help you stay proactive and agile.
From a transportation perspective, here’s what we're anticipating for 2025's retail peak:
Expect a Longer Capacity Crunch
As outlined above, the retail peak season is getting longer and longer every year — which means the corresponding capacity crunch will be extended, too.
Plan on seeing that seasonal scarcity earlier in the year, especially when it comes to enclosed trailer types.
From late August through to the end of the year, everything from Halloween candy and canned cranberries to Cyber Monday deals and holiday decor will be traveling to store shelves near you via dry van trailers.
Reefer trailers will also be busy transporting perishable freight like turkeys, dairy products, fruit, chocolate, and other elements of holiday feasts as November and December draw nearer.
Our advice? If it's realistic for your business, plan on setting aside some budget for slightly higher freight rates. Paying a bit more will help you secure those in-demand drivers.
If spending more isn't in the cards for you this season, try to give your providers more lead time to find you a truck for your loads — they'll thank you for it!
Giving your transportation providers enough lead time is important all year round, but during retail season, the importance increases tenfold.
With so much cargo to move, transportation providers have a lot on their dockets during this time. As a result, it’s harder for carriers to service urgent shipments.
These companies have already planned their trucks out well into the future. Many of them dedicate portions of their fleets to retailers over the coming months (ATS lent nearly 15 percent of our fleet last year).
All that to say: you'll pay a pretty penny to move your cargo in retail peak — unless you give your carriers at least 24-48 hours of notice before pick up.
Communicating your needs to carriers as early as possible this quarter will set you up for a successful start to 2026.
Related: Retail and General Merchandise Transportation: 4 Things to Prioritize
Consumer Spending May Be Slower
While consumer spending has remained resilient despite economic uncertainty, we may see a significant slowdown this holiday season.
According to a Sept. 2025 report by Deloitte, U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to grow at their slowest pace since the pandemic.
Sales during the Nov. 2025-Jan. 2026 period are expected to rise between 2.9-3.4 percent, compared with a 4.2 percent increase last year, Deloitte said in its report, which cites data from the United States Commerce Department and the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis.
A 3.4 percent rise in holiday retail sales would be the lowest rate since the Nov. 2018-Jan. 2019 retail peak period, which clocked in at a mild 3.3 percent increase.
Consumers have also self-reported that they anticipate spending less during this year's holiday season. According to accounting firm PwC's annual Holiday Outlook survey, consumers expect their holiday spending to drop by an average of 5 percent from 2024 — the first notable drop since 2020.
Additionally, PwC's survey forecasted:
- 11% drop in average gift spend
- 23% drop in holiday spend for Gen Z
- 10% lower average spend by those concerned about tariffs
- 53% said general price increases will likely affect their spending decisions
Still, consumers may end up spending more than they initially expected, as inflation has caused a widespread increase in the overall cost of goods, per Deloitte.
Ultimately, if consumer activity does prove to be slower than normal, it should make it easier for retailers and wholesalers to keep up this year.
Now is also a great time to focus on identifying and implementing cost efficiencies in your supply chain to help safeguard against lower consumer spending.
Consider consolidating shipments, working with your transportation provider to optimize routes, or leveraging technologies (like visibility platforms, inventory management systems, or predictive analytics) to reduce operational expenses.
The Fastest Shipper Wins
In this post-2020 market, an e-commerce presence and fast fulfillment are non-negotiable for retailers looking to grow and thrive.
Customers expect to be able to easily browse a retailer's inventory online (be it on their website, social media platforms, or both,) order in a few taps, and receive their item quickly — like, really quickly.
The consumer preference for speed has permanently changed the retail landscape, particularly as major players maintain (and repeatedly invest in) vast empires of logistics resources that continue to raise consumers' expectations.
Amazon Prime reigns supreme in this race against time, offering two-day or even next-day shipping on a massive inventory of items.
"Sure," you might be saying, "next-day shipping is great, but it comes at a cost."
Well, it might surprise you to learn that today's consumers don't balk at paying more for guaranteed speedy shipping. According to a 2025 holiday shopping report by Bazaarvoice, 35 percent of shoppers in the 18-34 age range — a key demographic — say they're willing to add an extra item to their carts just to qualify for faster shipping.
And retailers are reaping the rewards of this increased focus on urgency: a 2024 report by Roadie showed that 66 percent of businesses reported higher conversion rates after rolling out same-day delivery, with 23 percent seeing improvements between 6-10 percent.
Clearly, the game of near-instant gratification can be lucrative — so how can you get your piece of the pie?
Smaller businesses that want to stay competitive in this new era of commerce will need to build flexible logistics networks that can scale up or down in accordance with market fluctuations.
It may be time to vet your existing network to ensure each provider is supporting your success this peak retail season.
The right carriers will have the trucks, technology, and experience to navigate an unusual holiday surge with ease. If any of your providers have struggled to keep up with the post-COVID marketplace, it may be time to re-strategize.
Related: Shipping Freight Around a Holiday: 3 Critical Planning Tips
Fill Your Network With Reliable Retail Carriers
As the 2025 retail peak season approaches, freight shippers need to be more prepared than ever to navigate the complexities of this dynamic — and critical — period.
By understanding the unique nuances of this time, you’ll empower yourself and your team to make more informed decisions, mitigate risks, and capitalize on opportunities.
This year's peak season will continue to reflect the shifting trends of extended timelines and the ever-growing impact of e-commerce.
With challenges such as an extended period of economic uncertainty, the potential for slower consumer spending, and increased pressure on rapid fulfillment, shippers must be strategic in their planning.
Securing capacity early, striving to optimize supply chains, and partnering with the right logistics providers will help you better position your business for success.
This focus on proactivity and adaptability will help ensure your shipments run smoothly — which will ultimately keep your customers satisfied and your business competitive in an increasingly demanding market.
Now that you have a more complete idea of what this retail peak season will demand from businesses in your position, you may be considering changing up your carrier network accordingly.
Our Retail Carrier Selection Checklist was developed specifically to help you make these decisions. Download it today (for free!) and use it to build a strong, reliable transportation network you can rely on year-round.
