The final quarter of each calendar year marks retail peak season, the pre-holiday period during which consumer spending steadily ramps up through to the new year.
While the $994.1 billion consumers spent during the 2024 holiday season was record-breaking, this year's macroeconomic uncertainty has many retailers worried about what this year's peak season will look like.
Anderson Trucking Service (ATS) understands the challenges retail peak presents. Each year, we dedicate a portion of our dry van fleet to running lanes for large retailers, helping to ensure their products get where they’re needed.
This firsthand experience with retail peak season, combined with our decades of logistics experience, allows us to share some unique insights about the months ahead.
In this article, we’ll break down the ways in which the retail landscape has changed as well as our expectations for what the 2025 retail peak season will look like.
Key Takeaways for Retailers
- With retail peak beginning earlier, retail shippers must proactively manage shipping volumes and on-hand stock.
- The freight capacity crunch will intensify on high-volume lanes, but will likely end earlier due to the forward shift in the start of the season.
- Data visibility, clear communication, and early planning are essential for reliability.
- Reverse logistics retail freight will surge after the holidays and requires equal preparation.
When Retail Peak Season Really Begins
The traditional peak season once ran from late October through December, but these days, it can begin as early as August.
Due to the e-commerce boom, retailers must prepare for promotions, seasonal resets, and holiday demand earlier and earlier each year. Large e-commerce events like Prime Day and back-to-school sales trigger surges months before the holidays.
In 2025, the ripple effects of the e-commerce marketplace have been compounded by tariff pressures. In an attempt to avoid or delay their exposure to tariffs on goods imported from overseas, many shippers front-loaded their imports earlier in the year.
That means more goods intended for the holiday season moved much earlier in the year, disrupting the predictable seasonal fluctuations in truck demand and availability. This extended retail peak period changes how shippers must manage capacity.
With carriers beginning to fill trailer commitments long before the final quarter, those who secure contracts early will have better access to equipment, consistent service, and predictable pricing — advantages that disappear when spot rates climb.
Download The Guide: 7 Keys to Success in the Retail/General Merchandise Industry
What Market Forces Are Defining Retail Peak Season 2025?
A mosaic of economic, behavior-based, and supply chain pressures are reshaping how U.S. retailers plan — and how freight will need to move — during the busiest shipping window of the year. Here are the forces having the greatest impact:
Behavior-Driven Operations & Technology
Economic shifts will influence retail spending (more on that below), but structural changes in how consumers shop matter more.
From a consumer behavior perspective, the constant thrum of e-commerce continues to increase the number of smaller shipments moving through regional distribution centers, pushing less-than-truckload (LTL) networks to their limits.
Likewise, expectations of instant gratification (e.g., next-day or two-day shipping) set by the aggressive e-commerce marketplace has shippers seeking out faster, more precise transportation solutions across their entire supply chains to stay competitive.
(Case in point: a 2024 report by Roadie showed that 66% of businesses reported higher conversion rates after rolling out same-day delivery, with 23% seeing improvements between 6-10%.)
Technology advancements are also shaping expectations. Retailers rely on tracking data to align deliveries with shelf resets and marketing campaigns, and to fulfill consumers' expectations of order progress visibility. Shippers who can’t provide that visibility risk losing bids to those that can.
Finally, it's not just consumers whose behaviors are impacting the holiday season freight landscape: labor shortages and ongoing truck driver turnover continue to restrict available equipment capacity.
Inflation & Cost Pressures
Higher costs tied to inflation, tariffs, and supply chain friction are pushing retailers to walks a tightrope between protecting margins and keeping prices competitive. This is driving:
- A shift toward value-focused inventory
- Tighter merchandising cycles
- Short, concentrated freight surges around key promotions
Due to overall increased operational costs, shippers are especially motivated to secure cost-effective transportation solutions. Carriers will be expected to strike a delicate balance between competitive freight rates and service quality.
Slowed — But Still Positive — Consumer Spending
Consumers seem to be of two minds heading into the 2025 holiday shopping season: on one hand, the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted in early November that retail sales in the final two months of the year will exceed $1 trillion for the first time in history, growing between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024.
On the other hand, consumers have self-reported that they anticipate spending less this holiday season. A September report by accounting firm PwC showed consumers expect their holiday spending to drop by an average of 5% from 2024 — the first notable drop since 2020.
The gap between what consumers are saying and what experts are predicting may be explained by the one-two punch of widespread increases to the overall cost of goods and a simultaneously slowing job market and increasing unemployment.
Put simply: While consumers say they intend to cut back spending this holiday season, price increases may force their hand and cause them to spend more than originally anticipated or intended.
So, as wage gains level off and shoppers become more selective, retailers should:
- Expect increased price sensitivity from consumers, especially on discretionary items
- Lean more on holiday promotions to unlock demand
- Expect freight rate spikes to compress into shorter, less predictable windows
- Plan inventories (and truck capacity) well in advance as much as possible
Trade Policy & Tariff Uncertainty
The macroeconomic landscape of 2025 has been defined by the uncertainty swirling around the U.S.'s tariff policies, prompting some importers to adjust their supply chain accordingly.
With many shippers rushing to bring high volumes of inventory into the U.S. much earlier than traditional seasonal cycles would dictate, this retail peak season looks different than years past. This season, shippers can expect:
- Periodic, shorter capacity crunches throughout November and December, rather than a sustained period of demand
- A greater need for flexible routing and capacity from your freight carriers
- Occasional reliance on expedited modes
9 Shipping Tips For a Successful 2025 Retail Peak Season
Realistically, we haven’t had a “normal” retail peak season since 2017. And in many ways, the 2025 season won't exactly be "normal," either.
There will be challenges (aren't there always?) like the continued impact of tariffs, the increased pressure of the e-commerce boom, and many other factors at play — but there will be opportunities for success, too.
Seizing upon these opportunities will require effective retail shipping planning. Use our freight planning tips to prepare:
- Diversify your carrier mix: Balance contract freight with flexible options like intermodal or regional carriers to hedge against disruption.
- Opt for experience: Working with carriers experienced in retail peak season freight shipping ensures smoother coordination during high-traffic windows.
- Prioritize high-value lanes: Secure pricing and capacity first for time-sensitive or high-margin freight.
- Consider new strategies: Dedicated fleets or drop-and-hook programs can improve throughput at high-volume distribution centers.
- Prioritize precision: When facility space is limited, coordinating live loads with precise appointment scheduling keeps freight flowing.
- Maintain scheduling flexibility: Build buffer days into delivery windows to absorb weather, congestion, or capacity-related delays.
- Monitor market data: Use load boards, live rate indices, and analytics tools to spot regional shifts and adjust strategy on the fly.
- Stay in contact: Early, consistent communication reduces surprises (and helps carriers help you) when networks tighten.
- New year, new needs: January brings heavy returns, resets, and reverse-logistics freight. As equipment shifts to inbound lanes, secure backhaul capacity early to avoid imbalances and cut detention and congestion.
Related: Retail and General Merchandise Transportation: 4 Things to Prioritize
Stay Ready for What's Next
The 2025 retail environment rewards preparation and adaptability. Shippers that align marketing, procurement, and transportation teams early will outperform those that react late.
The same logic applies to communicating with your freight carriers: the earlier you start, the stronger your position when peak demand hits.
Now that you have a more complete idea of what this retail peak season will demand from you and your carriers, you may be considering changing up your network accordingly.
Our Retail Carrier Selection Checklist was developed specifically to help you make these decisions. Download it today (for free!) and use it to build a strong, reliable transportation network you can rely on year-round.
And if you’re looking for a logistics partner experienced in retail peak season freight shipping, ATS can help. Our team understands the cycles, pressures, and opportunities that define retail peak season logistics — from early capacity planning through post-holiday recovery. Connect with ATS to keep your freight moving through every season.
